Warm weather over the holiday weekend can be attributed in part to climate change, and even more directly to the El Niño effect.
Santa must have been sweating when he arrived in New England last week. All bundled up for his trip south, what a surprise it must have been to get here and have temperatures in the sixties. And those poor reindeer, I hope the heat didn’t slow them down, since there were a lot of folks waiting on that sled.
Even those of us who were already here were feeling the heat. Carolers spreading cheer could have been decked out in shorts and dresses, singing perhaps a different tune. “Baby its warm outside” might have been the refrain, and the only thing making our Christmas white is the confused December-blooming flowers.
Nature, too, seemed disordered by the unseasonably warm weather. Reports came in of flowers blooming, a monarch flying, and birds singing as if it were spring. Rosemary, roses and dandelions boasted blossoms, and my bees, usually inside their hive waiting out winter, were out enjoying the flowers. Mytoi Garden on Chappaquiddick reportedly had rhododendrons and cherries in bloom.
How warm is it and how does it compare? Consider that during the first two weeks of December, more than 5,900 daily temperature records were broken across the country, according to The Weather Channel. Last October was reportedly the warmest on record ever.
Is climate change to blame? Yes and no. This year’s weird weather can be blamed more directly on El Nino, though climate change, which describes long-term weather and atmospheric changes, can affect shorter-term weather events in terms of their extremity, severity and frequency.
El Nino is defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as a “large scale ocean and atmospheric climate interaction linked to periodic warming in the sea surface temperature across Central and eastern Central Equatorial Pacific.” Though the phenomenon occurs in the Pacific, its consequences are global.
Occurring irregularly every two to seven years, El Nino can last from nine months to a year or longer. And some years are worse than others. This year is one of those "super" El Nino years coming in as one of the more record-setting events documented in terms of numbers and strength of hurricanes, typhoons and storms. Flooding in South America, drought in Central America, Australia and Indonesia, and lack of needed monsoon rains in India are just some of the international consequences of the wild weather this year.
Translated from Spanish, El Nino means little boy or Christ child, so-called because of the December occurrence of warm weather. Part of the El Nino oscillation cycle, El Nino has an alter ego: La Nina, or little girl, which brings below-average temperatures, but occurs less frequently than her boisterous brother.
While I can’t decide whether to enjoy or worry about the weather, it does give me pause. Bursting buds, dandelions in December and spring-like temperatures all seem strange.
Perhaps the idioms bear out my concern. A German proverb suggests “A warm Christmas, a cold Easter; a green Christmas, a white Easter.” But even more unsettling is the Chinese proverb that muses a “mild winter makes a full graveyard.”
Suzan Bellincampi is director of the Felix Neck Wildlife Sanctuary in Edgartown, and author of Martha’s Vineyard: A Field Guide to Island Nature.

Comments
Each time your paper has an
bs oak bluffsEach time your paper has an article mentioning climate change it loses credibility. The facts do not support such claims. Christmas sixty years ago had more cities with temps above 60 degrees than this Christmas. The whole premise of the 1954 movie " I'm dreaming of a white Christmas" was that it was 70 degrees on Christmas day in New Hampshire. These unusual events happened then, and will continue to happen every now and again. Just the cycle of the earth which mankind couldn't possibly control.
bs indeed. You claim to cite
Steve Auerbach Oak Bluffsbs indeed. You claim to cite the facts. Well, the actual facts are that almost all the warmest years on record have occurred recently; the warmest seven being 2015, 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005, 2009 and 1998. Of course there will be fluctuations and unusual years from time to time, but the trend is obvious.
I just don't understand how you can deny what 98+% of credible scientists agree on, not to mention such apparent effects such as the melting of the polar ice cap and ocean warming.
Give me some real evidence to the contrary, not anecdotal memory or statements from certain Presidential contenders with ties to the fossil fuel industry, and then perhaps your statements will have some credibility.
BS- have you told the
Farmer5 ChilmarkBS- have you told the thousands of climatologists your 'findings'?
The warmest decade and year
Pat Gage Bryn Mawr, PA & EdgartownThe warmest decade and year in recorded history, and universal international agreement, except for one political faction, about the causes. How can one deny climate change. Thanks to Suzan Bellincampi for this article and thoughtful explanation of the long-term effect of climate change on short-term weather phenomena.
Historically there are plenty
deshandra brown mvHistorically there are plenty of CYCLES, of years of warm weather, and of years cold weather. Due to the current cycle, those promoting 'global warming' will jump on the band wagon banging the drums. Ask the folks in Boston who shoveled 90 inches of that 'global warming' last winter and they might disagree.
Those 'promoting global
Farmer5 ChilmarkThose 'promoting global warming' are actually thousands of scientists worldwide. They are NOT the same people who look out their kitchen window and draw conclusions about the weather.
Scientific theories promulgated by looking at real data are not even remotely related to your armchair musings about cycles. The rate of change in global temperature leaves only one explanation. Aside from the usual spate of fringe websites the consensus among scientists around the world is overwhelming. Man made climate change is undeniable. If you want to ascribe it to political beliefs or some hidden government conspiracy in the US, then fine. Just spare the rest of us. Citing last year's Boston snowfall falls well short of actual science, Deshandra.
Keep drinking the Kool-Aid
deshandra brown mvKeep drinking the Kool-Aid Farmer5. Facts are undeniable. Colder than ever. More snow than ever. But you keep denying the facts. I'll look out the window any day before listening to some armchair expert who refuses to accept the facts. What you refer to 'science' is nothing but garbage propaganda.
If you are really a farmer,
deshandra brown mvIf you are really a farmer, then your cows are responsible for more greenhouse emissions due to their flatulence and burping. They release methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. So quit blaming everyone else for your junk 'science'. Get your facts straight.
As evidenced by this
Dick AquinnahAs evidenced by this discussion, not enough is being done to educate the general public regarding the very wide difference between weather and climate. It's barely mentioned in most schools, it's all but a taboo subject on evening tv weather reports or the Weather Channel. And it's siimply not enough to ask the naysayers to "crack a book" or go on-line and read a zillion rational, science-based reports. But where to begin? Home? School? Government and/or industry campaigns? These ring a bit hollow at this point. Something is slouching from both Bethlehem, Peoria, even Washington, once again driving the world toward bombast and the irrational. But how to harness the beast this time around, I don't know, and maybe it can't be tamed.
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